Predictions for Modern Horizons 3

Hello folks! As we near preview season for Modern Horizons 3, let’s take a way-too-early deep-dive into some archetypes whose pieces are primed for movement! 

Early Calls

We're still several weeks and over a month out from Modern Horizons 3, but its presence has been looming since the 2024 slate of releases was announced. While we know very little in extensive previews, we know enough to consider some speculative potential existing format pieces, particularly ones tied to specific archetypes, have going forward. 

Eldrazi-Typal Staples

Eldrazi were once the quintessential enemy of a healthy Modern meta. Long before Hogaak Summer, there was an era known as Eldrazi Winter, which occurred shortly after the release of Oath of the Gatewatch in early 2016. Eldrazi Winter came to an end in April 2016 when Eye of Ugin was banned in the format. For this three-month window, Modern was arguably at its worst. Pro Tour: Oath of the Gatewatch was so saturated with Eldrazi decks to the point where almost 50% of the Day Two meta at SCG Louisville was Eldrazi builds.  

The mana acceleration provided by both Eye of Ugin and E[card]ldrazi Temple[/card] made for a potential turn two kill. How? Imagine you have an opening hand with an Eye of Ugin, Eldrazi Temple, Reality Smasher, three Eldrazi Mimics, and a Simian Spirit Guide. On turn one, you play Eldrazi Temple, and on turn two, you’d play Eye of Ugin and pitch your Simian Spirit Guide to pay for the fifth mana in Reality Smasher’s mana cost. You would then proceed to cast all three Eldrazi Mimics for zero mana, and have them enter as copies of Reality Smasher, which is a 5/5 with trample, haste and quasi-ward. Turn your board sideways, and threaten 20 damage. 

This line of play was not too uncommon, oppressive, and made for not particularly interesting or exciting games. The Eye of Ugin ban didn’t kill Eldrazi decks, but certainly made them considerably weaker and removed their overall explosiveness. Since this ban, most Eldrazi cards find themselves in Tron derivatives, with Emrakul, the Promised End and Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger being the mainboard finishers for most of the decks. Other cards like World Breaker and Karn, the Great Creator have enabled Tron decks to play more like toolbox decks that simply cast large, imposing threats by “cheating” with the insane mana value from the eponymous Tron lands: Urza's Tower, Urza's Power Plant, and Urza's Mine. 

Don’t get me wrong, Tron is still a viable component of the meta, but one can’t help but wonder if Eldrazi-typal builds will have a home again after MH3 hits the streets. What we know officially is that there is going to be an Eldrazi-themed Commander supplemental product, as well as full-art basic lands featuring what looks to be a series of Eldrazi titans. Officially, only two specific Eldrazi have been spoiled alongside a Snow-Covered Wastes: Emrakul, the World Anew, and It That Heralds the End. Both of these are encouraging previews. 

Emrakul threatens to be castable using only the three Tron lands if its Madness cost can be enabled. On cast, Emrakul’s ability to steal all of an opponent’s creatures is immensely powerful, but also being able to board wipe when it leaves play is just as devastating. On top of all this, Emrakul is also a 12/12 threatening lethal damage in just two easy swings. 

While it’s obvious that Emrakul will likely see some play in Modern, It That Heralds the End is way more interesting to me. At uncommon, this two-mana 2/2 reduces the cost of your Eldrazi titans by one mana and then boosts the stats of your Eldrazi creatures. I really like this in typal builds, where Eldrazi Temple enables this card to land on turn one, and in theory reduces the costs of cards like World Breaker to six mana instead of seven. Given that you can run four of these in a deck, having two in your opening hand makes it possible to land World Breakers, and other mid-costed Eldrazi finishers, considerably earlier than normal. Given that we don’t know the full extent of previews yet, it’s likely there will be more Eldrazi that stand to benefit from that cost reduction alongside the existing Eldrazi staples. 

So what would I speculate on? Any Eldrazi staple with competitive potential, particularly Eldrazi Temple (which sits at $4.50 currently) Thought-Knot Seer, Reality Smasher, World Breaker, and Eldrazi Mimic. Other fringe pieces like Oblivion Sower, given their low price-point ($1), also seem worth the spec. Beyond this, the new bounceland from Outlaws of Thunder Junction, Arid Archway, also seems worth its weight in pennies. Overall, these typal staples for Eldrazi have a lot of potential with MH3 on the horizon, and offer a very cheap price-point for speculation, thereby minimizing their short-run financial risk. 

Eldrazi Temple	CardKingdom $2.99	TCGPlayer $4.40
Eldrazi Temple	CardKingdom $27.99	TCGPlayer $34.00
Thought-Knot Seer	CardKingdom $2.99	TCGPlayer $3.33
Reality Smasher	CardKingdom $3.49	TCGPlayer $2.75
World Breaker	CardKingdom $0.99	TCGPlayer $1.29
Eldrazi Mimic	CardKingdom $1.79	TCGPlayer $2.00

Elves

While only one Elf has been previewed in Modern Horizons 3 so far, it is an impactful Elf, and a reprint to boot: Priest of Titania. Once a staple in Legacy Elf-typal decks, Priest hasn’t seen much play outside of the Pauper format. Despite being common with limited cross-format use, Priest holds a fairly high $6 price point with a recent trend-increase coinciding nicely with its MH3 preview at MagicCon Chicago. 

So what makes this card so appealing? It provides what Elves have been missing in Modern for ages, a two-mana Elvish Archdruid. Now, it’s possible to easily go turn one Llanowar Elves, turn two Priest of Titania, and Heritage Druid setting you up for an explosive turn three with potential 7+ mana available. Ultimately, Priest enables Elves to generate mana on turn three on par with what the Tron lands can generate, and with more consistency. 

The issue with Elves in Modern has always been “finishing the game.” Shaman of the Pack and Collected Company were once centerpieces in Elves, but have since fallen out of favor. Today, the preference on many “fringe” lists on MTGO Leagues seem to be utilizing Ezuri, Renegade Leader and Elvish Warmaster as the “mana-dumps” for pumping up your Elf army and swinging out for lethal damage. 

Beyond the fragility of finishers, Elves have also historically been susceptible to the ever-rampant removal pervasive in the format. However, with Living End’s presence on the decline, and Fury’s banning, perhaps there’s potential for Elves to find a home in the format much like Merfolk have in recent months. Priest feels like the catalyst. Having said that, Priest alone will not push Elves to the same level Merfolk have risen too, but is a huge step in the right direction. A lot of what remains to be seen is the additional support Elves may get in MH3. It’s tough to gauge whether Priest is a one-off reprint like we’ve seen before, or if it’s a larger piece to a wave of Elf support. 

Regardless, one would naturally ask what would be worth speculating on. Supporting Elf cards I would happily pick up currently would be: Ezuri, Renegade Leader and Elvish Warmaster, as they still seem to be robust and accessible win conditions that only get more consistent with Priest in the meta. Beyond these, Quirion Ranger and Heritage Druid are both cheap (under a dollar) and staples in the majority of Elf builds. Leaf-Crowned Visionary and Elvish Clancaller also represent cheap “Lord” cards for Elves that see a mix of play as well. One higher-end speculation would be Nissa, Resurgent Animist–arguably the best card from March of the Machine: The Aftermath–which sits anywhere between $27 and $30, but offers a large amount of value for decks that care about both lands and Elves. 

Again, the trajectory for Elves is ultimately positive with a Priest reprinting, but the magnitude of where the deck goes in Modern is more dependent on future previews than Eldrazi. Nevertheless, the specs for Elves staples are fairly low-cost, and still offer potentially high returns for minimal risk.

Ezuri, Renegade Leader	CardKingdom $9.99	TCGPlayer $8.41
Elvish Warmaster	CardKingdom $1.29	TCGPlayer $1.54
Quirion Ranger	CardKingdom $1.29	TCGPlayer $0.91
Heritage Druid	CardKingdom $3.49	TCGPlayer $2.64
Leaf-Crowned Visionary	CardKingdom $5.99	TCGPlayer $3.95
Elvish Clancaller	CardKingdom $0.79	TCGPlayer $0.90
Nissa, Resurgent Animist	CardKingdom $37.99	TCGPlayer $28.34

A Note on Fetchland Accessibility

For the first time since Khans of Tarkir in 2014, the ally-colored Fetchlands finally have a reprinting event in a widely-distributed, mainstream set. Looking at the the top-end of the Khans printings of these Fetchlands, Polluted Delta sits at $30 a card, while Windswept Heath sits on the low-end at $20 a pop, on par with the top-end of the market prices for Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn, the most expensive enemy-colored Fetches by comparison. 

The big question is whether or not MH3’s reprinting of the enemy Fetches will “equalize” the Fetchlands across the board, much like the persistent reprinting of the Shocklands has brought them all under $20. 

Unlike the enemy Fetches that took several reprintings to dent the market prices, MH3 will definitely equalize the monetary costs associated with Fetchlands in the meta. Why? The print-run and product demand will result in many Fetchlands being opened and traded on the open market, similar to Modern Horizons 2. The reason it took until MH2 to finally bring the enemy fetches to sub-$20 unit prices was because previous reprintings in Modern Masters 2017 were much scarcer by nature of the print-runs for Masters products at the time. MM3 ultimately failed to impact the float of enemy Fetches in the market, while MH2 completely flooded the market. I expect the dynamic in MH3 to be no different. 

While this note isn’t speculatory in nature, the ally Fetchland reprints represent a substantial supply increase that the market is likely underestimating. Looking at the price trends of Polluted Delta from KTK, it’s relatively stagnant even in spite of the reprinting announcement. 

My guess is the market is expressing uncertainty in just how large the flood of Fetches into the market will be. I would posit the effect is going to be large. Prior to Lord of the Rings, MH2 was the best-selling Magic set of all time, and I would imagine MH3 poses a real chance to overthrow LTR’s place as the best-selling set of all time. If this is the case, my prediction is that all the Fetchlands–ally or enemy–will finally be less than $20 each. All this is to say, wait for a month or so after MH3 before picking up your playsets. A little bit of patience with these game pieces is well worth it given their use inside and outside of the Modern format. 

Still Too Soon

Ultimately, the speculatory remarks in this article are centered on low monetary cost staples for Elves and Eldrazi. Despite the favorable outlook for these archetypes, it is still just too soon to make a complete judgment call on these decks’ viabilities in the meta without a full look at MH3 as the preview season (and leaks) unfold. Having said that, the trend that I am enjoying from the existing MagicCon previews is the support for typal decks, which, aside from Merfolk, have struggled to find a home in the Modern meta for years. 

If this is the direction MH3 goes–power and support for typal archetypes, rather than a general increase in power–I would be thrilled. I doubt this will wholly be the case, but it would be a terrific use of a direct-to-Modern set to empower suffering archetypes, rather than amp up the overall power level. What is certain right now, though, is that the unending years of ally Fetches remaining in a realm of general unaffordability is coming to an end, and that alone is a massive step forward. 

Speculate safely, everyone!

Further Reading:

cEDH Staple Prices Are Booming

Are Assassins the Next Big Creature Type in Magic?

When Magic Products Fail