Safe Bets for MH3 and Templar Knight

Last month we were in the heart of Modern Horizons 3 preview season and prices of cards were unpredictable. Now card prices are starting to settle and we can better assess which cards are Safe Bets. 

Breakfast

For those that have read my articles in the past, it’s no secret that I love Legacy. While Modern Horizons sets tend to be just as impactful for Legacy as they are for Modern, MH3 has had a significantly slower impact on Legacy than Modern Horizons 2 did. The three most popular MH3 cards in Legacy so far have been Nadu, Winged Wisdom, Necrodominance, and Psychic Frog. Psychic Frog slides comfortably into the currently popular Delver and Reanimator decks. Necrodominance has created one of the strongest and most consistent glass cannon strategies Legacy has seen in many years. Nadu has been appearing in Stoneblade builds as well as slotting into Cephalid Breakfast. 

$2.79$3.49

After playing with the new cards, it feels like Cephalid Breakfast has the best mix of power and consistency of the decks benefitting from MH3. Nadu adds an additional layer of consistency to what has historically been one of the best permanent-based combo decks in Legacy. After the spike of Shuko, I anticipate Cephalid Illusionist and Nomads en-Kor will also rise in price as Cephalid Breakfast feels poised to become the best deck in Legacy. I don’t think they’ll reach Shuko-level prices, as Shuko is an enabler in Modern, cEDH, and Legacy, but I do anticipate raises to the $5-10 dollar range for both Nomads and Illusionist. It’s worth noting that, like Shuko, neither Illusionist or Nomads have received any form of reprint. 

Thrumming Stone

We’ve now finished previews for the upcoming Universes Beyond: Assassin's Creed set, and one new card has grabbed my attention. Templar Knight is a 3/1 with vigilance with an activated ability that allows you to tutor powerful legendary artifacts and put them directly into play. What interests me about this particular card is that you can have as many copies of Templar Knight in a deck as you choose. This isn’t a new ability in Magic: the Gathering; we’ve seen it many times, on cards like Rat Colony, Relentless Rats, and Shadowborn Apostle. In fact, if you include the reprint of Persistent Petitioners in Ravnica Remastered, this will be the third card with the ability printed this year (the other is Slime Against Humanity). These cards tend to be popular, and a way in which Wizards can predictably print valuable commons without disrupting formats like Pauper. I think they’ve figured this out, which is why we’ve been seeing so many of them. 

$8.53$8.49

Thrumming Stone has a unique interaction with this category of cards that allow unlimited copies. The value generated by Thrumming Stone can single-handedly turn the tide of a game. In 2021, Thrumming Stone was a $72 card. Since then we’ve seen a reprint in The List and Double Masters 2022, which has caused the card to fall closer to the $5-7 dollar range with little movement this year. Will Templar Knight finally be the card that returns Thrumming Stone to glory? I'm not sure, but I do know that if Templar Knight isn’t the catalyst, it certainly won’t be the last card we see with the text “You may have any number of this card in your deck.” 

Invert Polarity

I thought this card was a joke. I laughed when I first read it. It felt like a fun Commander card that people would play in their coin flip decks. Then I played with it. I was wrong; Invert Polarity is a Cancel when it’s bad and a three mana spell that wins the game at its ceiling. Since its official release, we’ve seen Invert Polarity find success in Murktide and Jeskai control builds. The post-rotation Modern meta is still in flux; many decks like Nadu Combo are still looking for the correct build. Currently, Invert Polarity slots into existing established archetypes instead of being part of entirely new archetypes. I believe this will cause Invert Polartity to increase in price more slowly than the other bombs in MH3. In spite of that, I anticipate that by the end of summer we will routinely see it in the Top 8 of larger Modern Events. 

$2.00$2.49

Outside of Modern, Invert Polarity feels like an auto-include in Commander Decks that can play it, outside of cEDH. Most decks that could play it are already playing Counterspell. The increased mana cost is a real negative; it’s not as flexible and is much less valuable in the early stages of a Commander game. However, much like in Modern, the upside of Invert Polarity has the ceiling of winning the game. In Commander we see large flashy spells like Rise of the Dark Realms and Expropriate. Invert Polarity allows the caster to respond to these game-winning haymakers in a way that says, “You definitely don’t win the game, but if I flip heads I win the game.” I’m more excited about playing this card in Commander than Modern for those game-swinging stories. 

Thank you for joining me for another month of safe betting. Enjoy Modern Horizons 3, and I’ll see you next month!

Further Reading:

Nadu - Modern All-Star?