How to Prepare for Standard Rotation in Magic
Magic is a game that’s always changing - sets come and go, new decks steal the limelight as others fade into memory, and cards that once served as the boogeyman of the FNM zeitgeist gradually disappear between the power creep of their newer iterations.
While it may feel like Magic is moving faster than ever - and in many ways it is, with a record-breaking number of product releases each year - it’s important to recognize that this cycle of turnover has been with us nearly as long as the game has. I’m talking, of course, about Standard.
Standard (formerly Type II) is a format that has change baked into it in a way that few other aspects of Magic can truly appreciate. No other way of playing Magic has a rolling rotation structure at its core, and as such Standard is truly a beast of its own kind. New sets introduce new decks across formats all the time, but rarely do sets define an entire ecosystem the way they do during their lifespan in Standard. So, what are we supposed to do when the format changes; how do we handle rotation?
Identifying an Exit
The first thing to do when Standard rotates is to familiarize yourself with which cards are leaving the format. Presently, Standard operates on a three year timetable – meaning that as many as the past twelve sets are legal at any given time, up until the Fall of each year during which the oldest year’s sets swap out. An example of this is the Fall 2024 rotation, during which
Once you’ve figured out which cards are leaving Standard, then the next step is pretty straightforward: figure out which ones are worth keeping, and which you’re happy with letting go of. Nearly all cards that rotate out will lose a significant portion of their value, as now the format they were primarily designed for (Standard) no longer has any need for them. So, whatever you decide to keep, do so acknowledging that it’s more likely to depreciate in the near future as opposed to anything else.
Some cards will hold up much better than others, however, and as such the urgency to offload them is much lesser than it otherwise would be. Utility lands and fetchable dual lands (or, in Streets of New Capenna’s case, tri-lands) have cross-format desire, and with that broader desire comes a more stable price tag.
After you’ve identified which cards are leaving the format due to effectively being kicked out by the rules of the game, you next need to figure out which still-legal cards are likely to leave the Standard metagame due to lack of support. In general, a good rule of thumb is that the more specific an effect, the more likely it is to leave once the support pieces are gone. So, take stock of whichever decks you were playing prior to rotation and count up how much of it is left standing post-rotation. If all you’re left with are a handful of niche cards, odds are you’re better off parting with the whole thing in one go. Alternatively, if you’ve got a pile of lands and powerful threats, chances are that you’ll want to hang on to them.
Identifying an Entrance – Gain of Legality
We’ve figured out which cards to let go of and which cards to keep, but what about cards to pick up? Well, the key thing to keep in mind on this point is that you shouldn’t just keep an eye on buying the shiny new cards coming with the next release – rather, it’s equally important to try and look at what cards to buy that have already been sitting around the Standard cardpool not doing much as of late.
The first thing to think of is what new cards could come in to support otherwise under supported cards. Speculating on the surprise breakout star of Standard may be a bit risky, but it’s worth it to keep in mind which cards were close to viability that now might just push through thanks to the new environment.
Beyond the cards gaining positive support from newer sets, it’s also important to think about the cards which are losing negative pressure thanks to their primary answers leaving the format. Some cards don’t need more support to thrive, but rather less of a stranglehold keeping them back. This kind of opportunity is often harder to predict than simply figuring out which cards will have more support, in large part due to the fact that some answers take the form of whole decks across the metagame as opposed to specific cards, but that’s not always the case.
Wrap Up
We’re now only a few months away from the Fall 2024 rotation, and with it will come a lot of shake-ups in the Magic market. Prices will fall, speculation on new cards will abound, and players will turn in their old decks for new ones. Despite the turnover, there doesn’t have to be chaos – keep your eyes open, think about which cards to keep and which to cut, and look to the horizons. You might just have the next breakout hit tucked away in a trade binder somewhere.
Further Reading:
Harvey McGuinness is a student at Johns Hopkins University who has been playing Magic since the release of Return to Ravnica. After spending a few years in the Legacy arena bouncing between Miracles and other blue-white control shells, he now spends his time enjoying Magic through CEDH games and understanding the finance perspective. He also writes for the Commander's Herald.
