Checking in on the Modern Meta After Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3
With Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3 in the books, there’s a lot to talk about. Looking at the day one metagame breakdown, we can see Modern has had a dynamic makeover compared to the pre-MH3 meta, with Nadu encompassing around 20% of the day one competitors and Ruby Storm not too far behind. So what cards are moving as the meta takes shape? And moreover, how well is the meta now defined? Let’s dive into a few big movers in the market!
Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury
Right now the market price for Phlage is around $40, and honestly, I expect it to continue to climb up. Phlage is very powerful, and has utility outside of Jeskai Control as well. It’s easy to slot into a shell that has red or white in it, and has an immediate and repeatable impact on the game in addition to threatening large amounts of damage.
What’s the long-run for Phlage? In the short-term, I can see Phlage crawling closer to the $50 mark. In the long-run, Phlage is in a bit of an interesting position: on the one hand, it’s widely played in the Modern meta in Jeskai Control and some Ruby Storm lists. The issue with Phlage is that outside of the current Modern meta, it doesn’t really see widespread play in any other format…yet. The adoption rate of Phlage in other formats, especially Pioneer, will dictate its long-run price more than anything.
As we’ve seen with MH2, LTR, and MH3, the Modern meta is quasi-rotating and can change quickly. With Phlage being so meta-dependent, so too will its long-run price be. That’s the big financial risk with this not-so-gentle giant for the time being. If you want to play Jeskai Control, then Phlage is probably worth picking up sooner than later, but as a long-run spec, I don’t see Phlage being particularly worthwhile.
| Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury | ||
| Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury (Borderless) |
Wish
I’m a sucker for cards that interact with sideboards, or cards that are “outside the game,” more broadly speaking. Obviously, for competitive formats, outside the game translates to “sideboard,” strictly speaking. At the kitchen table on the other hand, well, anything goes! All the same, Wish from
In Ruby Storm, you’re more often than not only paying two mana for Wish given the cost reductions from
Wish also has some interesting post-sideboard interactions as well, as you can sideboard cards from your main deck into your sideboard for a higher density of post-board interaction, while enabling you to “Wish Back” whatever you sided out should you need to get access to it at a later point in the game.
So is Wish as a $10 card here to stay? Possibly. I think Ruby Storm is better on paper than Bant Nadu, despite Bant Nadu being the most popular deck by day one statistics. I would expect, short of a ban, that Ruby Storm will be here to stay. Of course the meta will adjust, as evidenced by
| Wish | ||
| Wish (Extended Art) |
Kozilek's Command
Just when I thought we’d seen the last Command cycle of cards in
Built into this Command is: card draw, ramp, removal, and graveyard interaction. Quite simply, Kozilek’s Command does it all. Outside of Prison-Style Tron decks, Kozilek’s Command is also seeing play in Legacy and Commander. There’s not much more to say. Pure colorless interaction for Eldrazi Tron has been limited to mainly just
Right now the market price is around $12, and looks to be trending downward. My guess is that this piece bottoms out at around $8 (give or take a dollar). At that point in time, it would be a more than worthwhile spec. The play inside and outside of Modern makes this card valuable beyond just the short-run. At the very least, it’s worth picking up a copy for your Eldrazi Commander decks!
| Kozilek's Command |
Sink into Stupor & Other MDFCs
The MDFC uncommon cards from MH3 are debatably the best collection of cards from the set. Among these beautiful uncommons, one stands out far above the rest: Sink into Stupor. Sitting at around $4 and leveling off, Sink represents the first time in quite a while that an uncommon has commanded more than a few bucks. In a set like MH3, Sink as an uncommon commanding its current price tag underscores its power and potential.
Seeing play in Modern, Vintage, Legacy, Modern, and cEDH, Sink is becoming a commonplace utility-interaction piece across the entire game. The ability to bounce a troublesome stax permanent or interact with uncounterable spells on the stack is insanely valuable in and of itself. The ability to also act as a blue mana source if needed early in the game is huge. The versatility of Sink into Stupor and many of the MDFC cards in MH3 makes their potential in the long-run quite large.
Honestly, one cheap pickup speculation I would highly advise is grabbing playsets of the MDFC cards from MH3. They are just that good.
| Sink into Stupor | ||
| Revitalizing Repast | ||
| Bridgeworks Battle | ||
| Disciple of Freyalise | ||
| Waterlogged Teachings | ||
| Pinnacle Monk |
The Future
While it is nice to see a fresh meta where
What’s more interesting are the cards not seeing play from MH3 at the Pro Tour.
Well, that’s all for today folks! Keep a watchful eye on the MH3 Modern meta, which seems to be here to stay. And speculate safely!
Further Reading:
Corey Williams is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Shippensburg University in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania. He considers himself a macroeconometrician with his research body reflecting work in applied macroeconomics and econometrics. Corey is an L1 Judge who started playing Magic around Eighth Edition. He enjoys Modern, Commander, cEDH, and cube drafting. Outside of Magic, he loves running, teaching, and the occasional cult movie.
