New Modern Horizons
Modern Horizons 3 is the most anticipated set of this year. No other product has generated the same level of excitement and community-wide enjoyment. When compared to its numerical predecessor, several differences stand out.
Firstly, the set appears to be a print-to-demand product, with many individual sellers confirming that there are no difficulties with ordering. This is a welcomed change from excessive printing which will lead to lower prices in the long run.
Another key difference is the inclusion of serialized cards in the set, with the numbered Eldrazi “Titans” going up to 250. These numbers are significant, as the inclusion of serialized cards ensures a smaller quantity of Collector Boosters in circulation. Initial calculations suggest that we will have less flexibility compared to the recent Universes Beyond: Fallout release, which currently matches in price between Collector Boosters.
Lastly, there is the monkey in the room: Will this set include another card as impactful as Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer? Based on initial analysis of the cards, there appears to be few contenders. However, Ocelot Pride stands out. While it may lack the raw power advantage of its predecessor, it compensates with increased aggression. As an early threat that will leave behind additional bodies and shape the game’s tempo, I foresee mono-white or white/red aggro becoming a tier-two deck.
Song of Grief and Bans
The inclusion of the evoke Elementals in the Special Guests spot was a surprise. This decision contrasts with the banning of Fury late last year, widely considered a thoughtless move. While not personally a fan of Scam playstyle, I believe the reprints are valuable additions, both in terms of gameplay and pricing. All of these cards continue to see adequate play in formats ranging from Modern to Vintage. Although the Special Guest spots remain elusive, the pricing trend for all of the Elementals is consistently declining.
The issue with the evoke Elementals is the sheer power that they provide, another remnant of Modern Horizons 2. This makes them less ideal for frequent reprints, as they are more suited to special releases like the current Horizons set or Secret Lairs. We are probably only one to two more reprints away from these cards dipping below the $10 mark. In the long term, I wouldn't be surprised to see them included in Commander decks in the same manner that Toxic Deluge has been featured in a variety of decks in recent releases.
Fresh Coat of Pain(t)
Several cards added to Modern from previous releases have piqued my interest in their long-term viability and price. Considering that these inclusions are made with at least some premeditation, I always wonder what R&D is cooking up for the different formats in the long term.
Kappa Cannoneer has proven itself since its original release in Commander: Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty. Its impact was primarily felt in Legacy, with decks like 8-Cast and Patchwork Stompy utilizing the Cannoneer as both a beater and a finisher. Initially, expectations were high, with the cards reaching $24 during presale due to Commander printing limitations. Since then, it has mellowed out to the sub $5 category. The renewed interest and potential for the card in Modern have spiked attention, and its price was up to $12, though it has already fallen again.
I don't expect Kappa Cannoneer to experience significant price fluctuation moving forward, as the card seems to be in a stable stop demand-wise.
Orim's Chant is the Legacy equivalent of Silence. Now, with both available in Modern, it's hard to imagine decks not swapping out their copies for the upgrade. Orim's Chant has a proven track record as a main-deck card in Cephalid Breakfast, whereas Silence is typically a sideboard card in several decks.
From a price perspective, Silence is currently climbing past $10 due to a lack of reprints, despite its recent inclusion in Secret Lair. In contrast, Orim's Chant is currently plummeting below $5. In the long term, this price will likely increase consistently to match the demand. A sweet spot for this card would be around $8-$12, possibly within the next two years.
How to Get Old Players Back in - 101
Looking at the rest of the main set and newly printed cards, Corey made an excellent article last week covering the top 10 cards from the set for Modern. So I’ll aim to provide a different perspective on some of the stand-out cards. This set is full of cards that have connections with previous fan favorite cards or mechanics. To me, part of the appeal of this set is its reminder of certain Magic highlights and iconic plays that shaped my enjoyment of the game.
Starting with Ugin's Binding, this card is essentially a weaker version of Cyclonic Rift with additional steps. Its playability in Modern is highly questionable and it’s more likely to be a fun inclusion in EDH. While the effect itself is powerful, it’s limited severely by its casting requirements. As a three-mana tempo play, it’s probably too slow for a format where games are often decided by that point. Currently, Ugin's Binding is falling from its pre-release high of $35 down to the $15 - $20 range. This price range is more than reasonable, with demand primarily driven by new five-color Eldrazi Commander players.
Echoes of Eternity has caught my attention for several reasons, with the most notable being its copy effect and the trigger doubling it enables. In the magical Christmasland where everything goes your way, Echoes doubles most of your artifacts, Equipment, and key game pieces. The potential advantages it offers, particularly with cards like the Mirrodin Swords, initially drew me to it. Another intriguing aspect is the possibility of treating colorless as a supporting subtheme for mono-colored decks. For instance, mono-white Equipment decks could incorporate colorless mana and card support. However, players would need to determine the number of utility lands and Wastes needed depending on various deck factors.
The discussion may have veered off-topic briefly, but it's interesting to consider the potential shifts in color pairings and the impact of colorless-themed sets on deck construction. No matter how we think about it, the certain part of the card is the price. Currently, pre-release market expectations for Echoes of Eternity are tapering-off, with the price dropping from $20 to an average of $10. Despite this decline, the future outlook for this card appears promising, although there is no concrete data to back this opinion up yet.
Modern 100-Card Formats
The set release includes an accompanying Commander product, mirroring the recent pattern of all set releases supporting the format. Along with this, the four provided decks also offer a more expensive foil counterpart, where all 100 cards are foil and feature a different art treatment for the face commanders.
Thematically, the decks follow the pattern of previous Modern archetypes such as Jund, Eldrazi Winter, Energy, and UrzaTron. As of the writing of the article, the prices on most of the decks are equal, except for Eldrazi Incursion, which averages at twice the asking price of the other decks. The popularity of these isn't without merit as some of the more powerful reprints and new EDH cards are printed here.
To begin, we have reprints of Akroma's Will and The Reaver Cleaver. Akroma's Will has been reprinted recently in the Commander: The Lost Caverns of Ixalan release, and has continued to increase in price since then. Following its reprint, the price fell to $11 before slowly climbing back up to its $21 average. Now, with a fresh reprint poised at $13, a similar pattern is expected to emerge over the coming weeks before the card settles between $18-$23.
As for The Reaver Cleaver, this is the first functional reprint it’s gotten outside of The List. The trajectory here suggests a local minimum price of $11 before both versions begin to pick back up in coming months, eventually reaching or even surpassing the $15 average. Anytime between now and the next two weeks would be a good opportunity to pick up some copies to upgrade your lists.
Among the new cards printed in the Commander decks, Planar Nexus and Final Act stand out as having the largest impact. Both cards offer unique benefits with a wide range of use cases. Planar Nexus is being hailed as a contender for the best land printed in the last five years. Its high price point, averaging $35, reflects its value in bolstering pre-existing decks. Whether you’re missing a Tron piece, working towards a Maze's End win, or messing with Deserts or Locuses, Planar Nexus enhances your strategy by providing additional numbers. Another significant benefit is that the ceiling on this land has not been determined. With new cards being printed every few months and lands being a consistent part of the game, Planar Nexus may eventually become ban-worthy.
Final Act, on the other hand, is seen as a slightly downgraded version of Farewell for black. Both in price and functionality, Final Act underperforms, with the difference between the exile and destroy effect being too vast. Averaging just under $10, it’s likely at a short-term high point before the price bottoms out closer to $6.
However, I'm optimistic that many budget players will consistently pick up copies over the long-term period until a reprint is provided. With time and with the right push, the price point may approach $15 or even $20+.
Europe, Are You Ready?
Modern Horizons 3 appears to be a well-balanced set, offering the right blend of speed and course correction. With fancy new cards catering to various formats, corrections through pre-banning, and no glaring outliers in terms of strength, Wizards of The Coast seems to have learned from the previous iteration's warping effect. Additionally, the prices associated with the cards are following a lower trend on average than expected. Historically, prices tend to hit an all-time low two weeks post-official release so remember to add your price alerts on the site. In my case, I'll be seizing the opportunity to acquire as many fetches as possible, along with some of the Titans.
For those of you attending Magiccon Amsterdam, I look forward to seeing you there. Feel free to come and say “hi” or share your best MTG finance story with me.
Join me again next time as we delve into the historical realm with Ubisoft's favorite series.
Further Reading:
Are Assassins the Next Big Creature Type in Magic?
