Do Serialized Cards Impact the Value of Collector Boosters?
It’s been just over two years since serialized Magic cards made their official main-set debut in Collector Booster packs of
Comparing Wins: Modern Horizons 3 and Bloomburrow
First up, let’s take a look at the positive case and compare two sets that each did pretty well after their release, one with serialized cards and one without: Modern Horizons 3 and Bloomburrow. Why these two? Well, other than the fact that they are both considered successful releases, it’s because the structure of their contents is largely the same, albeit with or without serialized cards. Each set had a non-serialized special collectible (textured foils in MH3, gilded foils in Bloomburrow), a bevy of extended and borderless treatments, plus a special slot for reprints. Modern Horizons 3 undoubtedly has a higher floor price thanks to its role as a premium product, but that is a question for the power level of the cards in each box, not strictly the treatments of those cards.
So, starting with Modern Horizons 3, a brief rundown: this set came out to roaring applause. Say what you will about its effect on the landscape of Modern and beyond, but just about everyone was buying up this set the second it hit shelves. Upon release, Modern Horizons 3 experienced a largely normal price swing, rising in price during the earliest weeks (peaking around $406), falling after the hype died down ($338), then rebounding pretty quickly ($370) and climbing in price ever since. All in all, typical price action over the short term, with a long-term window demonstrating a healthy price trajectory.
Looking at Bloomburrow, we see nearly the exact same thing, albeit with different absolute dollar values. Prices started out around $226 on the open market, contracted to $213, then rebounded to $224. The regrowth has been a bit bumpier since then, sometimes outpacing MH3, other times falling a bit while MH3 has only stalled. But overall the story of Bloomburrow is the story of a normal success – bump, fall, rebound.
Between these two cases, one thing is pretty clear: strictly speaking, the presence (or lack thereof) of serialized cards is not a necessary factor for the success of a Collector Booster Box in the long term. If a product is already favored by the market, as both Bloomburrow and Modern Horizons 3 were, then serialized cards don’t appear to make a significant bump in that project’s value. So, what about sets that collapsed instead of succeeded?
Comparing Losses: Murders at Karlov Manor and Streets Of New Capenna
Next up, the negative case. Let’s look at two sets that both plummeted post-release, one with serialized cards, one without.
Starting with our serialized contender, let’s talk about Murders at Karlov Manor (MKM). This set was everything Modern Horizons 3 wasn’t. The power level didn’t make people excited, the theme was bashed, and the market rejected it. From all of the Magic releases in the past year, it stands alone as the dark horse, the set that fell down and stayed down.
In terms of price, this behavior graphs very differently than our successful sets from up above. Before product had even hit shelves, the negative pressure from a collapsing market drove prices into the ground, with a release-week price near $170. A few weeks later, when successful sets would be in the rut of their post-hype retraction, MKM had instead plateaued at $155 per box. That price held for a while, only eventually recovering to its current $170 price tag after nearly a year.
Looking at our non-serialized contender, Streets of New Capenna, we again see a very similar price chart, although with a less precipitous drop off in the early release weeks. Instead of immediately collapsing, Streets of New Capenna took a few weeks to hit its short-term low of $140, but once it hit that benchmark things stayed bad for a while. Flash forwards a few months and the set was dropping further, all the way down to $99 in late 2023. Since then, it’s bounced back quite a bit (up to $150), but things aren’t exactly stellar.
Comparing these two failures, a slightly different story emerges from that of their successful counterparts: while serialized cards may not boost a set significantly further, they may work towards staving off the most serious of declines. Murders at Karlov Manor fell significantly and fell quickly, but its floor was a good deal higher than Streets of New Capenna’s.
Wrap Up
Serialized cards are a flashy draw to many Magic products nowadays, but they shouldn’t be looked at as the premiere reason for a set’s success. Design, flavor, and so much more go into that. However, that’s not to say they play no role – WotC probably wouldn’t go through the hassle of printing specialized sheets if that were the case. Instead, think of them as one of many supports on a product’s price floor. It may not stop a rapid collapse, but it can serve as a last level of resistance in the long-run erosion of value.
Further Reading:
Harvey McGuinness is a student at Johns Hopkins University who has been playing Magic since the release of Return to Ravnica. After spending a few years in the Legacy arena bouncing between Miracles and other blue-white control shells, he now spends his time enjoying Magic through CEDH games and understanding the finance perspective. He also writes for the Commander's Herald.
