Price Movements After the Modern Bans and Unbans
Hello readers! To start the New Year off, we’ll begin by diving into the biggest change to Modern to cap off last year: the December Banned and Restricted Announcement. Now that a few weeks have passed, we can really start to observe the trends of some interesting game pieces affected by the banned list decisions, and what to make of these movements. Without further ado, let’s dig in!
The One Ring
Let’s start with one of the most interesting movements post-ban. Much like
However, a few weeks after the fact, we’ve started to see its price slowly tick back up to around $70, and it looks like it's going to continue trending upward. The anticipation of the ban (which was correctly forecasted) led to a dump of the card on the secondary market inflating its supply on the secondary market as demand fell leading to its real price decline.
However, now that it’s banned, players in Commander, or other formats that can use The One Ring, are jumping in trying to pick up their single copy or two to capitalize on its low price. As more and more players start to demand The One Ring, albeit for a different set of formats, its price now begins to rise, leading to where it is now. Sure, there’s probably some speculation nested in this as well, but it’s safe to say that players that were waiting on The One Ring’s banning are now jumping on the card and heating up its market.
The One Ring represents what I believe to be a relatively safe form of speculation, as it is an objectively powerful card with utility in formats other than Modern. Thus in the face of a banning, players in the aggregate can simply shift their average demand from Modern-driven demand for The One Ring to, say, Commander-driven demand, allowing for the long-run price potential to retain a relatively strong floor. Tough to say where this card’s price will peak, but presumably its ceiling will still be lower than it was while it was legal in the Modern format - maybe around $75 to $80.
Splinter Twin
Long have Redditors awaited the fabled unbanning of Splinter Twin. A controversial ban at the time due the perceived loss of diversity it supposedly induced in the Modern format that, by today’s standards, seems non-problematic and the least likely to cause issues in meta congestion.
Coming off of a window where Energy was 30% of the meta between all its archetypes, Twin looks like a relic of the past, which it always was. Realistically, this card could have been safely unbanned years ago. Once WotC shifted to direct-to-Modern products starting with
So now that Twin is free once more, where does its price really sit? Honestly, it sits pretty closely to where it was at the peak of its popularity back in 2015. Interestingly, its price trends mirror that of
Having said that, its viability in Modern is much more difficult to project where interaction like
Green Sun's Zenith
Now that we’ve talked about some of the most obvious singles from the banned list announcement, let’s dig into the massive movers, starting with Green Sun’s Zenith.
Green Sun’s Zenith (“GSZ”) was one of the first cards banned in the Modern format. Relatively controversial at the outset, the fear was that if it were to remain legal, both deck diversity and card diversity would be relatively constrained, as decks would warp around tool-box decks with access to too many consistently powerful game pieces, thereby congesting the format.
Prior to MH1, I probably could have been convinced to unban this card. In a world without
What’s more synergistic than GSZ in a deck that wants to slam a
The early data shows that Titan is arguably now the best deck in the format by a fairly terrifying margin. Thankfully, the skill floor for Titan is extremely high, so unlike Energy, it’s not like 30% of the format will decide to play Amulet Titan. Having said that, this would be the one card that I wouldn’t be surprised to see re-banned depending on the results that Amulet Titan puts up. If Modern starts to revert to the point where decks actively main-deck and side-deck cards to explicitly deal with Amulet Titan, then I would say GSZ is a candidate for re-banning. For now, folks of all formats will have to accept its price sitting at $50 with no sign of stagnation.
Mox Opal
This card is probably the most notable unban, monetarily speaking. Once a staple for all decks artifact-related or artifact-adjacent, Opal ate a banning due to the purported fast mana it provided that was not deemed healthy at the time for the Modern format. Whether this was true or if it simply died for the sins of
For years, Modern really lacked a viable artifact-centric deck, which is a shame, as for much of the format’s history, artifact-themed decks were one of the hallmark archetypes present in the format. By comparison to the pervasiveness of Energy, an unbanning of Opal likely won’t catapult Affinity or Hardened Scales to the front of the format, but will almost assuredly give these decks new life, and an opportunity to hold their own.
In fact, the historical love for these decks is echoed in the demand for Opal post-banning with its price rising from roughly $80 to over $200. Part of the scale for this card’s substantial jump in price is that, unlike Commander, every Modern deck that plays Mox Opal is playing four copies of it or none at all - there’s really no in-between. The density of access is essential for cards that lean into this game piece as a form of mana acceleration. Having said that, I would be amazed if this card sticks at $200. I imagine this demand surge will wane and its price will settle somewhere between $125 and $150, which would still make it the most expensive legal card in the format. How long will it remain financially out of reach? Tough to say, but if history is any guide, WotC will likely seek opportunities to capitalize on its potential reprint equity in, say, a Special Guests slot… Perhaps in the upcoming
Some Thoughts
It’s been some time since there was an unbanning as substantial in the Modern format as this one. In my ideal world, I’d prefer continual reevaluation of the banned list more than leaning into power-crept cards and mechanics for promoting a healthy mix of format stability and card diversity.
This banning was necessary - make no mistake - but it’s refreshing to see a boon of high-quality cards come off the banned list to see if they can find their way in a Modern format defined by power level more now than at any other time in its history. Realistically, Mox Opal is likely sleighted for a reprint in the near future, so I wouldn’t go out of my way to buy a playset at its current market rate. Furthermore, I also think that, of the unbanned cards, Green Sun’s is likely to be the most troublesome for the health of the format, but only time will tell! Speculate safely!
Further Reading:
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Corey Williams is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Shippensburg University in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania. He considers himself a macroeconometrician with his research body reflecting work in applied macroeconomics and econometrics. Corey is an L1 Judge who started playing Magic around Eighth Edition. He enjoys Modern, Commander, cEDH, and cube drafting. Outside of Magic, he loves running, teaching, and the occasional cult movie.
