Safe Bets - The Phoenix and the Beanstalk

Welcome to Safe Bets! Here on MTGStocks, we frequently discuss cards that went up in value. Every Friday, I check the Weekly Winners, hoping they’re cards that were already in my collection. 

In this series, I’ll help you find cards that have potential to spike with limited risk. In my personal experience with MTG finance, I’ve made hundreds, if not thousands, by investing in safe bets. I like to invest in cards with limited risk and would like to help you do the same.  

Arclight Phoenix

Since its release in Guilds of Ravnica, Arclight Phoenix has been a defining card in top tier decks across multiple formats. Until the banning of Faithless Looting in August of 2019, Arclight was one of the most powerful strategies in the Modern format, yielding a consistent price in the $20 range. Since that ban, it’s had two other large price spikes to the $15 range, one in October of 2021 and one in April of 2022. Today, however, Arclight Phoenix can be purchased for under $2. This current low is due to two recent reprints in Secret Lair: 30th Anniversary Countdown Kit and a Pioneer Challenger deck. Despite this decrease in price, it’s recently grown in popularity in the Pioneer format thanks to the addition of Sleight of Hand. 

Arclight Phoenix is my pick for this week's long-term investment for a number of reasons. First, it has a very unique and powerful ability. The specific role it plays makes it irreplaceable in those archetypes it’s found in. Additionally, it’s the key card in an already powerful Pioneer archetype that, as Sleight of Hand demonstrates, has room for improvement with minor upgrades. Finally, its current price makes it a safe long-term investment. After two reprints, Arclight Phoenix is as cheap as it’s ever been. This combination makes it an investment opportunity with massive potential long-term gain and limited risk of loss.

Arclight Phoenix	CardKingdom $2.99	TCGPlayer $2.59
Arclight Phoenix (Borderless)	CardKingdom	TCGPlayer $8.12
Arclight Phoenix	CardKingdom $7.99	TCGPlayer $2.45

Triumph of Saint Katherine

My second pick is Triumph of Saint Katherine. Triumph spiked around $20 last November, mostly for its role in the Legacy 40K Miracles deck. It’s a strong finisher for Legacy control decks with recursion that makes it hard to get rid of permanently. 

Since the spike, a few factors have led to Triumph’s price drop. First, Legacy control decks have shifted to four colors, leading to a greater diversity of threats. Second, we saw the printing of Forth Eorlingas! Forth outclasses most control finishers in Legacy by also offering a source of card advantage in the early game. Finally, Triumph not being accessible on Magic Online has greatly limited the ability to test and view results involving the card. This has led to Triumph’s current market price of $4.

Why then would I recommend an outclassed, untestable card without a home as a good investment opportunity? In Wilds of Eldraine, many formats saw the rapid popularization of a two mana enchantment that cares about cards costing more than five mana. Up the Beanstalk has been finding success across multiple formats, and Legacy is no exception.

Triumph offers a cheap, recastable threat that draws a card off Beanstalk, and with Eternal Weekend around the corner, we may see further validation of Triumph in Legacy. If we don’t, it’s still a strong card with a unique ability that would be hard to reprint due to it being Universes Beyond. At $4, Triumph seems like a safe investment with a large amount of potential upside in the coming weeks.

Triumph of Saint Katherine	CardKingdom	TCGPlayer $4.39
Triumph of Saint Katherine (Surge Foil)	CardKingdom	TCGPlayer $20.04
Up the Beanstalk	CardKingdom $4.49	TCGPlayer $4.69

Obsidian Charmaw

My final pick for stable pickup is Obsidian Charmaw. This bulk rare from Modern Horizons 2 is a unique Modern sideboard card. Against an assembled Tron, for it can destroy a Tron land while adding a 4/4 flyer to the board. It also has the unique benefit of having a mana value of five. This synergy with Up the Beanstalk makes it the perfect fit for the newly popularized Beanstalk Cascade deck. 

For a long time, decks had better ways of disrupting Tron, and a 4/4 body wasn't a significant enough reason to choose Obsidian Charmaw over cards such as Alpine Moon. Beanstalk’s introduction to the Modern format creates an added layer where Charmaw can draw multiple cards upon cast. Cascade Beans, in particular, wants to Cascade specifically into Up the Beanstalk, making Charmaw a specific fit. Today, copies of this card can be picked up for under $0.50. In July, foil copies could be snagged for the same price. Since then, foils have risen to $2.50. In the coming months, I expect non-foil copies to mirror this price trend and for the foil copies to continue to go up. 

Obsidian Charmaw	CardKingdom $0.99	TCGPlayer $0.63
Obsidian Charmaw (Showcase)	CardKingdom $0.99	TCGPlayer $0.60

 

In Conclusion 

There are a lot of ways to make money in MTG finance. Sometimes it’s best to diversify your MTG portfolio with some safe investment options. In the coming months we’ll discuss our winners and losers, and maybe look back and wish we’d added more Arclight Phoenix to our collection. For more in-depth MTG investment content, be sure to check out the Premium section.

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