An Introduction to Pricing Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited

01 Apr

by Harvey McGuinness

When you think about expensive old cards, what’s the first thing that comes to mind? Black Lotus? Juzám Djinn? How about other reserved list cards, something like Gaea's Cradle or Lion's Eye Diamond? Well, you aren’t wrong - all of these have pretty hefty price tags. But what about a Beta copy of Lightning Bolt? Certainly a notorious card, but not the face of “old and expensive,” I imagine. Well, there’s a group of cards that both Black Lotus and Lightning Bolt belong to, and with price rules to match. It’s time to talk about Magic’s first three sets, how to categorize them, and how to read their prices…unorthodox price charts.

$2,185.60 $2,299.99

$859.00 $899.99

$835.70 $799.99

The Two Big Classifiers: Notoriety and Reprint Status

Magic’s first sets - Alpha Edition, Beta Edition, and Unlimited Edition (ABU) are rare, they’re old, and they’re all worth something. Despite this, however, there are two crucial subdivisions within these sets which significantly change how the market approaches these cards. The first is simple notoriety.

$9,249.50 $9,799.99

Not many people play Shivan Dragon anymore, but boy oh boy will even an Unlimited copy of Shivan Dragon set you back a few dollars. The card is iconic and has an important history for the game’s early days, and as such – given that the value added to most ABU cards is due in large part to their importance as the first Magic ever cards – it stands to reason that the game’s early titans would gain the most from this sentiment.

This doesn’t just apply to cards which are out of touch with modern power levels, however. I’d be remiss to not mention the Power Nine here at least once, cards which - even in their cheapest printings - are all several thousand dollars. Yes, they are powerful, and they are scarce (more on this later), but beyond that they all continue to haunt the game’s eternal zeitgeist. If you’ve played Magic long enough, you’ve heard of the Power Nine, and that public image is worth more than any game function. Some cards are famous because they’re simply the first, and others are famous because they’re the first and they’ve got a myth behind them. Shivan Dragon, Lightning Bolt, Black Lotus - these have myths.

The second subdivision is the reprint question - not just one of “is this on the reserved list,” but rather “did this card see a post-Unlimited reprint.” Shifting away from the reserved list here is crucial to understanding the real supply of these cards, as sticking to the reserved list would mean folding Forcefield and the Dual Lands into the same category - something which they most certainly aren’t. The print run on Revised Edition was massive compared to the sum total of Unlimited, Alpha, and Beta, and understanding this highlights that there are far more copies of something like Underground Sea than there are Forcefields. This is why there is such a substantial price jump between the two original white bordered sets - Revised and Unlimited - and it’s also why many ABU-only cards are able retain such a strong price floor, despite being otherwise obscure cards.

$1,500.00 $2,099.99

Reading the Charts

Ok, so we’ve identified the differentiators for ABU cards and their price trends, but how should we go about actually reading their price data? Well, with supply so limited and with these cards (especially the big ticket ones) moving comparatively infrequently relative to modern-era singles, it isn’t as simple as just looking at the charts.

$16,499.99 $16,999.99

First - when you look at a price chart like the one above, what does it tell you? This isn’t the price for Timetwister - instead, the market price is reflective of the majority of past sales, which itself is primarily HP/MP (heavy player/moderate play) listings. The average price, meanwhile, reflects the median of TCGPlayer listings, which is weighted towards LP (lightly played) listings. This reflects the heavy value swings of ABU cards for condition, and as such reading charts can give you a good idea as to the general trend of a card’s value by percentage, but not by absolute dollar amount. So, while market price is pretty useful for any other set of cards, when it comes to ABU you really need to look at both market and median. That paints a broader picture for all conditions, and their price momentums.

ABU cards also suffer from significant price reporting anomalies, however, primarily due to individual listing-sourced issues. If you look at the price of an Unlimited Black Lotus from 2023, for example, you’ll notice there’s a day when the market price reflects $1000.00. That’s not right…right?

$19,799.99 $19,999.99

Well, it is and it isn’t. It most assuredly isn’t a correct reflection of the card’s value, but it is an accurate report of what TCGPlayer was reporting for the card - like I mentioned earlier, cards move infrequently, so a single “test” sale for $1000 is enough to tank the price for a day. Similarly, a graded copy going for $20,000 is more than enough data for some charts to think that Black Lotus just spiked. This all reinforces that, unlike the day-to-day tracking of card value that is capable for modern-era singles, charts for ABU prices are best used to track long-run momentum instead.

Wrap Up

Magic’s first set of cards are a class in and of themselves. Beyond just the reserved list and the Power Nine, these cards have a unique history - both as starting the game and as tracking its value. Reading their charts may be hard sometimes, but in the long run it’ll most certainly pay off.