The Big Things: Pricing Circles

Pricing old cards can be... complicated. Long gone are the days of the relatively clear-cut low, median, and high price rosters on TCGPlayer (shoutout to anyone who remembers the first Moat buyout). With the current system, this price range data has been collated into two primary points of information (buy lists notwithstanding) – listed median and market price. So, what do these have to do with old card conditions, and more importantly, how can this be an opportunity for value?

Stepping back a bit, it is important to look at what card condition means for old cards. As opposed to a discussion on a card's physical quality, for older cards (i.e. reserved list era), card condition is representative of something very different from modern cards – rarity. Unlike with modern cards, printed in orders of magnitude greater quantity than their 1993 era counterparts, the hand of time has whittled down the quantity of cards to the point that each condition class – damaged, near mint, etc. – can be viewed in a price bracket all its own. Relative to moderately played, for example, the number of near mint copies of these older cards is universally lower by a significant amount.

Let's take a look at a pretty nifty example of this dichotomy, a card we'll be coming back to later. Circle of Protection: Green, starting with the Limited Edition Beta printing. For our MTGStocks Premium members out there, you'll know that this was a card very recently highlighted on our Underpriced Cards list, and here's why.

First off, the price spread on this card is nuts. I mean, we're looking at roughly a 5 to 1 difference between the market price and listed median values. And this isn't a norm for Beta cards, either – something unique is going on here, but not so unique as to be completely unexpected. Here's the relatively normal 1 to 1 Circle of Protection: Blue, also from Beta for comparison.

So, what's causing the difference here? Why is the market price so much higher? Well, two things – one, discrepancies in market and median prices happen due to lag time pretty frequently (we'll touch on that more in a moment), and two, the market depth here is very, very shallow.

The market price of a card uses historical data – i.e., in order to be in touch with what people are actually willing to pay for a card it uses completed transactions for its reference point. The listed median data set is present-focused, meaning it attempts to anticipate the market based on what sellers are requesting for a card. By cross-comparing these two values, a rough estimate for the near-term value of a card can be made. In most cases, this isn't much of a difference, such as with Circle of Protection: Blue. Where this gets tricky is when the historical data contains an outlier, but the present listings don't stack in a way such that the median would be influenced by anything similar. And what is a perfect example of an outlier, especially with older cards? Anything graded, or – by proxy – anything that says near mint.

So, let's check the sales data for Circle of Protection: Green on TCGPlayer. As of writing this article, the market price is $61.69 and the last time a near mint copy of this card sold was on 10/15/22 for – you guessed it – $61.69.

What this means is that the market price thinks the card is on an uptrend, but that the average listing hasn't quite caught up with demand. This is the lag time I mentioned earlier, and it can be a pretty helpful clue in glimpsing price trends. For example, if I look at another reserved list era card (and this time, one actually on the reserved list) such as Argivian Archaeologist, with a price ratio of roughly 1.17 to 1, we can see that there is a pretty solid discount for light play copies of the card, relative to the market price. Additionally, this is one with a solid downtrend in absolute sales prices over the past couple months, but this is primarily due to average condition changes in sold listings (far more near mint or light play copies sold over the summer than are selling now, while the recent influx of purchases is aiming more towards moderate play cards).

This lag time and condition differential is also complicated by the depth – or, more aptly, lack thereof – of the market for old cards. The Circle of Protection: Green we spoke about earlier has sold six copies since the beginning of October, meaning that one outlier of $61.69 isn't just above the average price, it is also representative of almost 17% of all sales by volume over the past month. Looking at Circle of Protection: Blue for comparison, which has 16 completed sales over the same time frame and a highest value sold at $10.95 vs a current market value of $10.53, we can see that things are much more stable. Similarly, the three copies that sold for $10.95 are nearly identical in price to the present market value, were sold in near mint condition, and account for roughly 19% of sales by volume.

There are two important takeaways from this: the first is that market data is pulled upwards by the outliers caused by highly valued, good condition cards. The second is that, as these listings get sold and replaced by more modestly priced, lower-condition cards, the median price stabilizes in the short term. It's this tug of war that pushes older cards gradually higher in price, and it's why evaluating the difference between market and average is important. Take another example from our Undervalued Cards list – Darkpact from Unlimited.

Over the past month, eight copies of this card have sold, three of which were near mint. That being said, the price trend for those near mint copies is on an upswing, and the card itself has a solid price ratio of almost 2 to 1, market to listed median. This is an example of both historical card prices rising and card condition pulling the market data forward. It's the pricing tug of war from earlier, and this time the median hasn't quite caught up. Far from our Circle of Protection example, there is no solid outlier in this data, and buying at the listed median price will get you a nice and clean light play copy of the card.

So, do I think now is the best time to get in and buy a near mint copy of a Beta Circle of Protection: Green for almost $70? No, not really. But would I snag a lightly played copy for a couple bucks, tuck it away somewhere alongside a Darkpact or two, and check back in a year or so? Now that's a more attractive idea.