Fury and Beanstalk Banned in Modern. What Happens Next?
Most readers probably could guess what my article would cover this week: the Banned and Restricted announcement from December 4th.
No build-up needed. Let’s dig in.
Goodbye Fury
Fury was probably the biggest “problem” of the two banned list targets hit on this update. Why? Evoking Fury and following up with a
Now, in all fairness, Modern has always been a creature-oriented format rife with spot removal, but Fury changed that. The best answer to Fury was Fury or
Without Fury, it feels like the meta can decongest itself and start to breathe normally again. Decks that have been pushed to the back of the meta from the middle, like
All this being said, if you ever wanted a Fury for Legacy, Commander, or a similar eternal format, it’s the cheapest it’s ever been thanks to our friends at WotC. So why not pick up one or two?
So Long, Up the Beanstalk
Up the Beanstalk has now moved so far up that it found itself on the banned list (I know, that joke was forced, but hey, had to go for it). This shouldn’t be a big surprise either. Up the Beanstalk, despite its short lifespan, was probably the single cheapest and most effective card advantage engine in the format. Omnath Elementals (four- and five-color) were painful to play against, and while their presence in the format didn’t eclipse Rakdos Scam, they were certainly a less fun and uninteresting match.
Nothing feels worse than board-wiping or stabilizing against an already aggressive deck just to have your opponent rebuild and out-value you immediately on the next turn by Evoking a spell or two.
I won’t lie, I’m honestly a little happier about Up the Beanstalk being banned than Fury… but not by much. Fury definitely feels bad, but Up the Beanstalk’s persistence through the early-, mid-, and late-game make it unreasonably oppressive and, yes, unfair. As highlighted in WotC’s banned list announcement, Beanstalk had become so profitable to play that Temur Rhinos players reached the consensus that Cascading into a Beanstalk was as good as, if not better than, a
Where Do We Go From Here?
I expect this banned list will have a larger effect on the format over time than in the immediate future. I want to stress, however, that Rakdos is still a viable shell and its presence in the format won’t be completely erased by the banning of Fury, although it will definitely be hurt… a lot. That being said, what decks stand to benefit the most from this banned list? The answer is every deck, there are a few standouts whose pieces and staples might be worth grabbing sooner, rather than later.
Yawgmoth Gang
I mentioned earlier that creatures-matter decks will stand to benefit the most from this banning. And no deck cares about creatures more than Golgari Yawgmoth. No longer being hosed by Fury, Yawgmoth, a deck always on the verge of top-tier potential, finally has a chance to take control of the spotlight. And I fully expect it to do so.
Aside from being a difficult deck to pilot, Yawgmoth has felt the wrath of Fury more than most other competitive decks in Modern. With Fury gone, Yawgmoth can really stretch its presence in the format with little resistance from competitors.
That natural unknown here is just how much it can stretch its wings. Again, more time will be needed to gauge this. That being said,
Since there hasn’t been a major event since the banning, it remains to be seen if Yawgmoth will take the crown. However, early chatter on other Modern Discord servers and within the community tend to argue that both Yawgmoth and Temur Rhinos (for obvious reasons) are the most well-positioned post-ban. As such, hate cards for these decks (assuming they do pick up more traction) may also be appealing financial investments.
Murktide & Shadowtide
One of the interesting archetypes that stands to gain a lot of traction from a Fury-free Modern is that of Murktide shells. Moreover,
If Murktide were to see a resurgence, I would expect its core pieces to tick up in demand considerably, including, but not limited to: Murktide Regent, Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer, Dragon’s Rage Channeler, and Death’s Shadow. Supporting Death’s Shadow pieces, like
Finally, a recent addition from
But we’ll save more on that card for another time!
Orzhov Scam? Grieflblade? Solitudeblade?
As a Griefblade player myself, I’ll admit that I’m heavily biased towards the upward potential Griefblade or Orzhov Scam (as I’m now hearing it called) has. For starters, without Fury one must ask themselves the best possible “Scam” substitute for Fury that makes a Scam-based deck worth playing.
As such, Rakdos Scam players whose loyalties to the deck might be waning find themselves in a conundrum: do you simply play a weaker, but still viable Rakdos Midrange shell or do you shift into an alternative shell? Of the shells that Rakdos Scam players could transition to, Orzhov seems the most appealing with access to Solitude, Empheremate, Stoneforge Mystic (which will no longer be hit by Fury), and
For those of you who have held onto your Griefblade pieces and other Orzhov staples, you’ll likely be rewarded in the near future, as I fully expect the tides to turn from Rakdos Scam to Orzhov Scam in the coming weeks. Will this mean price hikes for Grief and Orcish Bowmaster? Probably not. I imagine we’ll see a stronger substitution of these cards into Orzhov shells, and fewer Rakdos shells altogether. However, in totality, the amount of Griefs and Bowmasters in demand in the format will likely remain largely unchanged.
Rhinos, and Rhinos, and Rhinos, Oh My!
I won’t spend too long on this, but Temur Rhinos still feels incredibly well positioned, mainly because it’s next in line to absorb whatever share of the meta Rakdos Scam will lose. This deck has been a solid top-tier choice in the format for years at this point, and I can’t imagine it being worse off from this ban. Even if it can’t play Up the Beanstalk anymore for the excess value it generates, the Rhinos shell is still pretty potent.
In a similar vein as Yawgmoth, it’s not so much that I expect key pieces from Rhinos to become more popular, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see sideboard tech aimed at combating Rhinos (and
Some Parting Thoughts
Admittedly, most Modern players weren't too surprised by this ban, and Rakdos Scam players will also admit that it was probably a long time coming. No deck sits at 20% of the meta or more without eventually facing the ban hammer. In fact, many decks causing congestion at the top end of the meta have felt the wrath of WotC for less (*cough*
Having said that, Rakdos Midrange is still viable. Being down four Furys definitely hurts, and perhaps it hurts enough to shift out of red altogether. Only time will tell. Nevertheless, the core black pieces of Rakdos are still financially lucrative opportunities to capitalize on while the meta goes through a dramatic shift to sort itself out. Cards like
On the other side of the equation, cards like
Fury | ||
Crashing Footfalls | ||
Yawgmoth, Thran Physician | ||
Agatha's Soul Cauldron | ||
Tishana's Tidebinder | ||
Solitude |
Further Reading:
Recent MTG Bans, Regional Championships, and Pioneer
How the Lost Caverns of Ixalan Delays Have Affected the Market
Corey Williams is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Shippensburg University in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania. He considers himself a macroeconometrician with his research body reflecting work in applied macroeconomics and econometrics. Corey is an L1 Judge who started playing Magic around Eighth Edition. He enjoys Modern, Commander, cEDH, and cube drafting. Outside of Magic, he loves running, teaching, and the occasional cult movie.