The Rise of Temur Breach in Modern
Happy Wednesday, readers! Today on Modern Times, we take a look at some of the winners in this post-banned list world we find ourselves in now that the format has had time to settle.
Unsurprisingly, a lot of major market movers are stemming from one deck that has reared its way to the front of the meta landscape: Temur Breach. Let’s dive in!
Underworld Breach
However, as of the recent changes to the Modern format banned list, Grinding Breach decks, specifically Temur Breach, have found themselves comfortably sitting as one the best overall decks in the format to the point where some Modern players are advocating for an Underworld Breach ban. What specific unbanned cards have fueled this resurgence? Simple, the unbanning of
Interestingly, despite Breach’s uptick in Modern play, the price remains relatively stagnant at $10, making it an excellent speculatory pickup as Temur Breach solidifies itself as one of the decks to beat in the current Modern meta.
| Underworld Breach | ||
| Underworld Breach (Future Sight) | ||
| Underworld Breach (Borderless) |
Abhorrent Oculus
I discussed
While energy still has an outsized presence in the format - effectively solidifying itself as the “Jund” deck of our current era of Modern - the bans as a whole have shaken up the format enough to breathe new life into shells that were otherwise fading in relevance, most notably Dimir Murktide shells. Given how well Oculus already synergizes with most of the tempo-oriented game plans that Murktide decks do best with, it’s not surprising to see Oculus jump significantly in price to where it is now as Murktide’s resurgence in the format has gone full-throttle.
Do I think Oculus will stick at $40 or so? Depends on how the continued success of Murktide, especially as Eldrazi Ramp, Energy, and Temur Breach, continue to also thrive in this new meta. I do think Oculus is exceedingly strong, and definitely gives Dimir shells legs that they didn’t have with
I see prices falling a little bit as the market settles. In my mind, Oculus is probably a $20 to $25 card, but given that its only printing was in Duskmourn, it wouldn’t shock me if it actually increases in price a little bit more, and then slowly starts to find its way back down to a more realistic floor. It needs another few weeks or so before its stable market price will be known, but it certainly is a winner in this post-ban meta that makes cracking Duskmourn packs worthwhile at the very least.
| Abhorrent Oculus | ||
| Abhorrent Oculus (Borderless) |
Mox Amber
I would be lying if I didn’t mention that a common theme in this article is the market movement caused by Temur Breach’s dominance in the format. While Underworld Breach itself has been relatively stable in terms of its overall market price, two other necessary pieces for the Breach combo are seeing considerable movement. The first of those pieces is
Stabilizing at around $48, Amber has found itself at its highest price since release. It’s worth highlighting that some of the trend increase in Amber is partially attributable to a pickup in its presence in cEDH as well in the wake of
Having said that, you really can’t go wrong with picking up a copy, at the very least to serve your needs for Commander. The card is objectively powerful in the right shell, and now that Modern has multiple Moxen to play around with, I would argue that, short of a reprint or relevant banning of a card in Temur Breach, that Amber’s demand will be here to stay.
| Mox Amber | ||
| Mox Amber (Schematic) | ||
| Mox Amber |
Grinding Station
The last card I want to discuss today just got a recent Future Sight frame treatment in
Yet here we are. It’s hard to believe that this card was a bulk uncommon just prior to 2020. As
Today, Grinding Station is fetching roughly $30 a copy with no sign of slowing down in its price trajectory. Much like Oculus, it will continue to rise to a point, and then settle down, especially given that reprints of it are non-existent outside of MB2, which doesn’t exactly do enough to address the outstanding demand for this combo piece.
I would argue that price trend is mostly reflective of how small the relative supply is in light of the largest surge in demand this single has seen. If you’re keen on playing this deck, picking up your copies sooner, rather than later will likely serve you well, but there’s a very real world where Station gets a widespread reprint, at which point I would expect the price to tank considerably.
If the supply of this uncommon was on par with the current print runs of modern day uncommons, it would likely be closer to the $7 to $10 price range. All this is to say, be wary when speculating on this single in particular as its price is extremely vulnerable, and easily eroded by just one meaningful reprinting event.
| Grinding Station | ||
| Grinding Station (Future Sight) |
Closing Remarks
Overall, it would seem that the Modern meta has mostly settled - mostly. The clear winners post-ban are beginning to emerge, and so too are the slough of problems that may bring. For starters, it would appear that energy still feels like it congests too much space in the meta, although it has gotten smaller in overall share, enough to let decks and archetypes that have benefitted from the unbannings to come to the forefront of the format. Among these, the biggest winners seem to be Temur Breach, Dimir Oculus, and Esper Charbelcher.
There’s some discussion that Temur Breach is the most problematic deck to find itself surging in popularity and performance. Breach in particular is fundamentally an extremely powerful card that’s very difficult for most decks to meaningfully interact with in the Modern metagame, short of an early game
Further Reading:
Underrated Versions of Commander Staples - Spotlight on Ramp
Corey Williams
Corey Williams is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Shippensburg University in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania. He considers himself a macroeconometrician with his research body reflecting work in applied macroeconomics and econometrics. Corey is an L1 Judge who started playing Magic around Eighth Edition. He enjoys Modern, Commander, cEDH, and cube drafting. Outside of Magic, he loves running, teaching, and the occasional cult movie.