Predictions for Modern Horizons 3
Hello folks! As we near preview season for
Early Calls
We're still several weeks and over a month out from Modern Horizons 3, but its presence has been looming since the 2024 slate of releases was announced. While we know very little in extensive previews, we know enough to consider some speculative potential existing format pieces, particularly ones tied to specific archetypes, have going forward.
Eldrazi-Typal Staples
Eldrazi were once the quintessential enemy of a healthy Modern meta. Long before Hogaak Summer, there was an era known as Eldrazi Winter, which occurred shortly after the release of
The mana acceleration provided by both Eye of Ugin and E[card]ldrazi Temple[/card] made for a potential turn two kill. How? Imagine you have an opening hand with an
This line of play was not too uncommon, oppressive, and made for not particularly interesting or exciting games. The Eye of Ugin ban didn’t kill Eldrazi decks, but certainly made them considerably weaker and removed their overall explosiveness. Since this ban, most Eldrazi cards find themselves in Tron derivatives, with
Don’t get me wrong, Tron is still a viable component of the meta, but one can’t help but wonder if Eldrazi-typal builds will have a home again after MH3 hits the streets. What we know officially is that there is going to be an Eldrazi-themed Commander supplemental product, as well as full-art basic lands featuring what looks to be a series of Eldrazi titans. Officially, only two specific Eldrazi have been spoiled alongside a Snow-Covered Wastes:
Emrakul threatens to be castable using only the three Tron lands if its Madness cost can be enabled. On cast, Emrakul’s ability to steal all of an opponent’s creatures is immensely powerful, but also being able to board wipe when it leaves play is just as devastating. On top of all this, Emrakul is also a 12/12 threatening lethal damage in just two easy swings.
While it’s obvious that Emrakul will likely see some play in Modern, It That Heralds the End is way more interesting to me. At uncommon, this two-mana 2/2 reduces the cost of your Eldrazi titans by one mana and then boosts the stats of your Eldrazi creatures. I really like this in typal builds, where Eldrazi Temple enables this card to land on turn one, and in theory reduces the costs of cards like World Breaker to six mana instead of seven. Given that you can run four of these in a deck, having two in your opening hand makes it possible to land World Breakers, and other mid-costed Eldrazi finishers, considerably earlier than normal. Given that we don’t know the full extent of previews yet, it’s likely there will be more Eldrazi that stand to benefit from that cost reduction alongside the existing Eldrazi staples.
So what would I speculate on? Any Eldrazi staple with competitive potential, particularly Eldrazi Temple (which sits at $4.50 currently)
| Eldrazi Temple | ||
| Eldrazi Temple | ||
| Thought-Knot Seer | ||
| Reality Smasher | ||
| World Breaker | ||
| Eldrazi Mimic |
Elves
While only one Elf has been previewed in Modern Horizons 3 so far, it is an impactful Elf, and a reprint to boot:
So what makes this card so appealing? It provides what Elves have been missing in Modern for ages, a two-mana
The issue with Elves in Modern has always been “finishing the game.”
Beyond the fragility of finishers, Elves have also historically been susceptible to the ever-rampant removal pervasive in the format. However, with
Regardless, one would naturally ask what would be worth speculating on. Supporting Elf cards I would happily pick up currently would be:
Again, the trajectory for Elves is ultimately positive with a Priest reprinting, but the magnitude of where the deck goes in Modern is more dependent on future previews than Eldrazi. Nevertheless, the specs for Elves staples are fairly low-cost, and still offer potentially high returns for minimal risk.
| Ezuri, Renegade Leader | ||
| Elvish Warmaster | ||
| Quirion Ranger | ||
| Heritage Druid | ||
| Leaf-Crowned Visionary | ||
| Elvish Clancaller | ||
| Nissa, Resurgent Animist |
A Note on Fetchland Accessibility
For the first time since
The big question is whether or not MH3’s reprinting of the enemy Fetches will “equalize” the Fetchlands across the board, much like the persistent reprinting of the Shocklands has brought them all under $20.
Unlike the enemy Fetches that took several reprintings to dent the market prices, MH3 will definitely equalize the monetary costs associated with Fetchlands in the meta. Why? The print-run and product demand will result in many Fetchlands being opened and traded on the open market, similar to
While this note isn’t speculatory in nature, the ally Fetchland reprints represent a substantial supply increase that the market is likely underestimating. Looking at the price trends of Polluted Delta from KTK, it’s relatively stagnant even in spite of the reprinting announcement.
My guess is the market is expressing uncertainty in just how large the flood of Fetches into the market will be. I would posit the effect is going to be large. Prior to Lord of the Rings, MH2 was the best-selling Magic set of all time, and I would imagine MH3 poses a real chance to overthrow LTR’s place as the best-selling set of all time. If this is the case, my prediction is that all the Fetchlands–ally or enemy–will finally be less than $20 each. All this is to say, wait for a month or so after MH3 before picking up your playsets. A little bit of patience with these game pieces is well worth it given their use inside and outside of the Modern format.
Still Too Soon
Ultimately, the speculatory remarks in this article are centered on low monetary cost staples for Elves and Eldrazi. Despite the favorable outlook for these archetypes, it is still just too soon to make a complete judgment call on these decks’ viabilities in the meta without a full look at MH3 as the preview season (and leaks) unfold. Having said that, the trend that I am enjoying from the existing MagicCon previews is the support for typal decks, which, aside from Merfolk, have struggled to find a home in the Modern meta for years.
If this is the direction MH3 goes–power and support for typal archetypes, rather than a general increase in power–I would be thrilled. I doubt this will wholly be the case, but it would be a terrific use of a direct-to-Modern set to empower suffering archetypes, rather than amp up the overall power level. What is certain right now, though, is that the unending years of ally Fetches remaining in a realm of general unaffordability is coming to an end, and that alone is a massive step forward.
Speculate safely, everyone!
Further Reading:
cEDH Staple Prices Are Booming
Corey Williams is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Shippensburg University in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania. He considers himself a macroeconometrician with his research body reflecting work in applied macroeconomics and econometrics. Corey is an L1 Judge who started playing Magic around Eighth Edition. He enjoys Modern, Commander, cEDH, and cube drafting. Outside of Magic, he loves running, teaching, and the occasional cult movie.
