Cards to Buy or Sell NOW for Modern
On the eve of many local game stores’
Today, I look beyond the recency bias associated with MH3 and Bloomburrow and look at a couple powerful cards legal in the Modern format that have trended down and are hovering at surprising lows. Now, of course, not all cards in the format are hitting new lows. In point of fact, there are a couple singles that are commanding an excruciatingly high price tag worthy of discussion, too. So let’s dig in!
Flare of Denial
I argued when MH3 was previewed that Flare of Denial was the best of the Flare cycle. I still stand by that assessment. While not on the same power level as the evoke Elemental cycle, the adoption of the collective Flares is still relatively lower than what it should be.
Flare of Denial, unfortunately, just hasn’t found enough homes to really command a large price tag. In Modern, Blue Moon and Merfolk have adopted Flare of Denial, as they have the creature base that can be leveraged for paying Flare of Denial’s alternate casting cost.
Around release, Flare of Denial was commanding well over $30. Today, however, you can pick it up for around $7. While I don’t find Flare to be worth its release price, I do think it is criminally undervalued. A playset of these for less than its release price for one copy speaks volumes. Again, not to beat a dead horse (or a dead Bird in this case), but Nadu overshadowing the meta really pushes cards like Flare to the margin of the card pool in the Modern format.
At the very least, it is my expectation that in a post-Nadu world both Merfolk and Blue Moon gain more traction in the format’s meta. If only for that potential uptick in demand alone, I would recommend getting a jump on Flare of Denial. Beyond these two decks, however, Flare also has utility in Commander and cEDH, as well as other eternal formats. Overall, Flare of Denial just seems like a criminally undercapitalized card insofar as free counterspells go, and seems worth the small investment for a potentially massive return.
| Flare of Denial | ||
| Flare of Denial (Retro Frame) | ||
| Flare of Denial (Borderless) |
Leyline of the Guildpact
In the awkward limbo between
Today, Leyline is a little less than $5. Again, much like Flare, this seems a little bit low relative to its potential – potential that we have already seen in action. Unfortunately, the steep fall in price is reflective of an even steeper fall in demand. Since MH3, domain-style decks are seldom piloted. Whether this is because they are objectively weaker even in the potential absence of Nadu or incentives to adopt domain archetypes to a post-MH3 world are too low is difficult to parse out.
Having said that, the versatility of Leyline is high enough where I would consider it a reasonable spec depending on how the meta shakes out at the end of the month and into September. At the very least, Leyline sees gameplay in cEDH in some
| Leyline of the Guildpact | ||
| Leyline of the Guildpact (Extended Art) |
Minamo, School at Water's Edge
The fifth article I ever wrote looked at the stagnating prices of some choice legendary lands from
What is driving this price resurgence? A couple things. Firstly, Jeskai control in Modern utilizes this gem as a one-of to untap
You’d be correct in assessing that, yes, it can't be just this singular inclusion in Jeskai Control driving this recent spike. You’d be saddened to know that a lot of this variation is coming from the presence of Nadu in the cEDH meta. In just a couple months, Nadu has solidified itself as one of the best decks in the meta with a remarkably high conversion rate of 33.33%. Nadu in cEDH utilizes Minamo for two reasons: to untap The One Ring for additional card draw (if said pilot is even playing The One Ring), and to target Nadu to untap Nadu, thereby triggering Nadu, and allowing the pilot to get some easy value from Nadu’s triggers.
While it would be reductive to attribute the entirety of Minamo’s recent price spike to either of these decks alone, it certainly is a combination of both along with a still fairly low supply driving this variation. When the pool of existing copies of Minamo are limited to Champions, The List, and
Will this price spike stick? Probably not. Minamo, if anything, feels primed for a reprint. I personally would not pay $80 outright for this card. In fact, and I rarely say this, now would be a good time to liquidate copies of Minamo from your personal collections if you’re not using them. Cards with relatively low supply like Minamo need only one small increase or reprint to drag the entirety of its average price down to an all-time low. Take for instance
| Minamo, School at Water's Edge | ||
| Dol Amroth |
Soul Spike
Here’s a card that is characteristically so low in supply that even a small uptick in demand is enough to send its price to the moon and back. Mono-Black
In Mono-Black Necrodominance, Soul Spike can actually serve as a key win condition. Play Necrodominance, pay a lot of life, draw a lot of cards, play Soul Spike for its alternative casting cost, gain life, and then rinse and repeat. In the very best case, you go through all four Soul Spikes in your deck and deal 16 damage to your opponent and gain 16 life, which can be utilized to enable more Necrodominance draws, and in the worst case, deal four damage, gain four life, and get potentially four more draws from Necro.
For a while, this card was less than $1, but now it’s a little over $60. An increase of this magnitude over such a small time window characterizes a shallow pool of supply being drawn from to service a spike in demand for format play even from a deck in the minority of the meta share. Like Minamo, I would unload extra copies of these sooner rather than later. With cards like this, it only takes one small appearance as a List reprint to absolutely knock the market price down a large chunk.
| Soul Spike |
Onward (and Upward?)
Of the four cards discussed today, two are shockingly low and overshadowed by stagnation in the Modern format, while the other two singles discussed are seemingly reaching for the sky in terms of financial evaluation, and demand in a pool of supply that feels all but dried up. Cards like
Further Reading:
How Has the Print Change for Secret Lair Affected Prices So Far?
Corey Williams is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Shippensburg University in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania. He considers himself a macroeconometrician with his research body reflecting work in applied macroeconomics and econometrics. Corey is an L1 Judge who started playing Magic around Eighth Edition. He enjoys Modern, Commander, cEDH, and cube drafting. Outside of Magic, he loves running, teaching, and the occasional cult movie.
