How is the Modern Meta Shaping Up Post-Nadu?
Modern seems to have once more found itself in a bit of a clogged meta. Looking at MTGDecks.net and filtering Modern tournament results just within the past thirty days, we see a fairly shocking (pun somewhat intended) revelation:
Even in the absence of
So how “problematic” of a position does this put the state of Modern? Well, let’s compare our priors. At its peak, Bant Nadu was anywhere between 20-25% of the metagame. While Boros Energy doesn’t present nearly as congestive of play patterns as Nadu, its dominance is certainly comparable. When we aggregate Energy across its mainstream lists (Boros, Mardu, Jeskai), even more startling results emerge:
If we consider Energy as one archetype, we see that a little under 30% of the meta is dominated by energy and energy offshoots, all of which share the Boros color signature at their core. What's more is that if we add up the next four highest meta shares with Energy, we find that just over half of the metagame can be boiled down to five decks: Energy, Murktide, Domain, Storm, and Eldrazi.
As odd as it seems, while play patterns may have improved in the absence of long Endurance loops, the diversity of the meta game seems to have gotten worse. What does this mean? Broadly speaking, Modern has in fact become truly a quasi-rotating format with the dominating archetypes pulling the highest quality cards predominantly from MH3, and then MH2. Perhaps this is the true cost of the Modern Horizons release cycle.
So what does this mean financially? Most staples are in a fairly stagnant state, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Price stability is generally preferential, but it makes capitalizing on trends a little bit more difficult to achieve. Having said that, while Ocelot Pride and Phlage might be fairly stable, there are some choice cards moving in the meta worth discussion that follow a common theme: cards that sideboard well against Energy, archetypes that have decent Energy matchups relative to the rest of the meta, and cards fresh to the meta that offer some universal value.
Suncleanser
Purely a sideboard card that never really provided a ton of utility, Suncleanser has been one of the few movers in this otherwise stagnant market without a reprint since
In general, the second modal ability of Suncleanser as it enters into play is its most relevant effect, specifically because Energy counters are placed on players and used as payoffs later in the game. Therefore, playing Suncleanser enables the user to take away all stored Energy their opponent might have accumulated. Doing so significantly dampens the payoffs and utility of cards like
Ironically, if you look at decks that sideboard Suncleanser the most, you would find it to be… wait for it… Energy decks. That’s right: Suncleanser is made for mirror matches, which makes utility more than just niche, hence its wonky price trends. While almost every Energy deck sideboards Suncleanser, if you aren’t playing Energy as an archetype (which is to say that you are in the other 70% of the meta), you likely aren’t playing Suncleanser. Having said that, its price is on a downward trend, and so long as Energy remains the deck to beat, I would expect its relative meta share to continue to increase to the degree it has room to, which makes Suncleanser a relatively low-risk speculation assuming it doesn’t get a surprise reprint any time soon, which doesn’t appear to be on the horizon for now.
| Suncleanser |
Ral, Monsoon Mage
Ral’s financial potential falls into our second category of cards: ones that support archetypes that match up well against Energy, and super well against the rest of the meta. Look no further for evidence of this than the recent matchup matrix from MTGDecks.net:
We see some good information. Firstly, Ruby Storm has competitive matchups against all three derivatives of Energy, sporting a roughly 50% win rate against all three. On top of this, it matches up well against many other tier decks in the format, particularly Amulet Titan. In essence, Ruby Storm holds its own exceedingly well against this Energy-dense meta, and its less-favorable matchups are much fewer and farther between (with the exception of Murktide). At the heart of Ruby Storm is the MH3 all-star (and rising potential cEDH-viable Commander) Ral, Monsoon Mage.
The market price for Ral has seemingly bottomed out at around $5.50, which is surprising given how easy it is to flip him the turn he comes into play. Part of the rigidity in Ral’s price trends is that Ruby Storm is struggling to see an uptick in meta share given how clogged up the format is with Energy. Having said that, Ral seems like an obvious speculatory choice given the matchup splits between Ruby Storm and the rest of the meta save a few outliers. Ral is also starting to see some experimentation in cEDH enabling it to have some cross-format viability (also a common trend in MH3 staples). Personally, I find Ral to be relatively undervalued, and believe its rigid price at the moment has more to do with the congestion of the format and the inability for Ruby Storm’s meta share to grow on par with Energy archetypes.
| Ral, Monsoon Mage | ||
| Ral, Monsoon Mage (Borderless) |
The Verge Lands
On a more optimistic note, there is a nice cycle of lands from
Well, the allied “Verge” land cycle from Duskmourn feels like a more refined version of Nimbus Maze, which enables you to colorless mana or either white or blue mana if you controlled a land of the opposite color-producing basic land type–which is to say it added white if you hand an Island or blue if you had a Plains in play. The convenient feature of this land was that if you could easily access, say,
The Verge lands meet you halfway. Take, for instance,
These lands represent the highest hidden financial potential in the market right now. Perhaps not as much potential as the fetchable Surveil lands, but the Verge lands are in many ways comparable in efficacy to the Battlebond lands, except they’re playable in Modern. Dual lands that enter into play untapped, and for easily met conditions can add for both mana are always headturners, especially in a 60-card format with a smaller card pool relative to Legacy or similar eternal formats. Like many partial land cycles, it comes as no surprise that
| Blazemire Verge | ||
| Floodfarm Verge | ||
| Gloomlake Verge | ||
| Hushwood Verge | ||
| Thornspire Verge |
A State of High-Energy
Today was a bit of a special article, and one that warranted taking a deeper dive at some of the data that’s out there in a format that is defined by Energy and saturated with MH3 staples. Such a state of stability comes at the cost of financial stagnation, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The Shocklands and Fetchlands are all at relative all-time lows after a year’s worth of some of the heaviest reprinting opportunities we’ve seen for each of these key land cycles. The entry point for Modern is relatively too low by comparison to previous years of play, but diversity seems to be a constant issue in maintaining the health of the format and retaining interest of relative players or prospective newcomers. If you’re interested in jumping into the meta, then Energy or Storm are probably the decks to run; however, if the format is a little too congested for your interest, then consider taking a peak at some of the new, and exciting staples brought forth in Duskmourn, and wait for the log jam to inevitably clear itself up. Speculate safely!
Further Reading:
Corey Williams is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Shippensburg University in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania. He considers himself a macroeconometrician with his research body reflecting work in applied macroeconomics and econometrics. Corey is an L1 Judge who started playing Magic around Eighth Edition. He enjoys Modern, Commander, cEDH, and cube drafting. Outside of Magic, he loves running, teaching, and the occasional cult movie.
