Modern Times - Tarmogoyf, Snapcaster, and Bob

Hello everyone! My name is Corey Williams, and I’m currently a fourth year economics PhD candidate at West Virginia University. I consider myself a macroeconometrician with my research body reflecting work in applied macroeconomics, time series econometrics, and nonparametric econometrics. I am an L1 Judge who started playing Magic around 8th Edition. I enjoy Modern, Commander, cEDH, and cube drafting. Outside of Magic, I love running, teaching, and the occasional cult movie.

Today I bring to you all a new series: Modern Times. The goal of this particular series is to apprise you of the musings and speculation in the Modern format. To start the New Year off, I think it would be worthwhile to reflect on some interesting trends in some choice Modern staples — but not the staples that you are probably thinking of.

Despite being released well over a year ago, it comes as no surprise that Modern Horizons 2  ("MH2") still has a strong and persistent impact on the meta. As of the writing of this piece, decks like Izzet Murktide, Hammer Time, Rakdos Scam, and Temur Creativity encompass roughly 25% of the format's competitive field. The impact of MH2 cannot be understated as evidenced by cards like Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer and the Evoke elemental cycle, among many others, appearing as four-ofs across most iterations of the top decks in the format.

Now you may be asking yourself: if MH2 has been around for so long, what is left to speculate about? Well, one could think of Modern in terms of cards that appear in MH2 and cards that do not appear in MH2—that's how imperishable MH2 has been for the format. However, there is much to be said about the negative space of cards not in MH2 that might have fallen off the radar.

Across the color pie, MH2 has shaken up the core staples in Modern. Outside of the obvious MH2 cards mentioned above, cards like Dragon's Rage Channeler and Unholy Heat also see prolific play along with other gems like Urza's Saga and Esper Sentinel. All this is to say, Modern as a format today is vastly different in composition than it was prior to MH2. In fact, the once-treasured staples of Modern are quietly trending downward in plain sight, and in some cases hitting lows once thought to be nearly impossible.

With this in mind, I'd like to talk about three specific former staples in the Modern format that are worth adding to your collection sooner rather than later.  

Tarmogoyf

 

There used to be a saying that “an ounce of Tarmogoyfs are worth more than an ounce of gold.” Well, the gold standard has certainly fallen out of favor in recent times and its unit price shows it. While one could argue that reprints in Modern Masters, Modern Masters 2015, and Ultimate Masters helped to drag the price down due to an influx of new printings in the market, I would argue that the biggest drop-off in the price of Tarmogoyfs in the past year is largely attributable to changes in demand. In particular, Jund decks loved their playsets of Tarmogoyfs, however, the advent of Death's Shadow synergies has largely replaced old school Jund’s place in the format (although there are still some “Boomer Jund” decks that true nostalgics will play regardless). Financially speaking, a non-foil Ultimate Masters Tarmogoyf would have cost you an average price of around $40 in June of 2021 (right when MH2 was released). Today you would have no trouble picking up that same copy for around $13. After a year of MH2 shocking the format, it would seem Tarmogoyf has really been pushed out of format relevance...for now. Almost all versions of Tarmogoyf seem to be trending downward, albeit at a much slower rate with each passing day. A nicety about Tarmogofy, in particular, is that it has a very accommodating mana cost that is still on-curve with almost all competitive decks in the format.

The incentives to swap Tarmogoyfs back into their previous decks may be low at the moment, but given how fluid Modern is, its position in the format could change in an instant (pun completely intended). If you ever wanted to procure a full set of Tarmogoyfs, you would be hard-pressed to find a better opportunity than now to do so.

Tarmogoyf
Ultimate Masters	CardKingdom $13.99	TCGPlayer $13.99
Modern Masters 2015	CardKingdom $13.99	TCGPlayer $14.22
Modern Masters 2017	CardKingdom $13.99	TCGPlayer $14.49

 

Snapcaster Mage

 

Snapcaster Mage was the pride of most control decks and a format staple for any deck that was even remotely blue. The ability to turn part of your graveyard into a reusable resource at instant-speed with low mana investment was and still is an invaluable interaction in any format.

However, as Modern has drifted away from control and mid-range builds where Snapcaster Mage would ordinarily shine, so too has its price drifted far away from its peak. We can see in recent months that both the average and market prices for the Modern Masters 2017 Snapcaster Mage sit around $20. Looking at its price history, we see once more that it peaked around $80 right before Modern Horizons was released and continues to trend downward through to the present day.

A primary culprit accelerating Snapcaster’s downward price spiral would be Ledger Shredder, but not because it’s a direct substitution for Snappy. Rather, as Modern has grown to encompass more tempo-oriented decks, cards like Ledger Shredder are a strict improvement for generating card advantage early and often to accelerate the pace of play and close out games efficiently. If you were to look at Izzet Murktide decks (currently 10-15% of the meta share depending on where you look), you would see Ledger Shredder as a frequent inclusion. However, one could easily imagine slotting Snapcaster into Murktide-style decks to capitalize on the slew of instants and sorceries that fuel its engine such as Lightning Bolt, Expressive Iteration, and Unholy Heat. But, head-to-head, a Murktide deck with Snapcasters instead of Ledger Shredders is strictly worse. It is that reality holding back Snapcaster at the moment. However, the last card on our list provides some commentary on how Snappy could flashback (again, pun 100% intended) to its former glory — more on that in just a moment!

The market price for Snapcaster looks very close to bottoming out, if it hasn’t already. If you ever wanted a full set of Snapcaster Mages for a Modern brew, speculation, Commander, or any other format (realistically, this card is playable in almost all formats it’s legal in), then now would be an excellent time to pull the trigger.

Snapcaster Mage
Ultimate Masters	CardKingdom $20.99	TCGPlayer $21.93
Innistrad	CardKingdom $21.99	TCGPlayer $19.99
Modern Masters 2017	CardKingdom $19.99	TCGPlayer $20.00

 

Dark Confidant

 

Dark Confidant, or "Bob" as he is more popularly (and affectionately) known, was once the main card-advantage engine in decks like Jund, Abzan, and pre-MH2 Death's Shadow builds. While Dark Confidant has been trending downward over several years, prior to Modern Horizons 2 the Modern Masters edition of it was sitting around $40.00 and trending upward until it peaked slightly after MH2 and began to fall.

Today, a Bob from MM1 will run you around $20.00. The obvious reason for Bob's demand downfall is simple: Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer and, to a lesser extent, Ledger Shredder. Ragavan at one mana value along with the card advantage he can generate through his Dash mechanic exceeds Bob's practical value considerably. Ragavan in-turn gets you an additional card and additional mana (via a treasure token) should it deal damage to your opponent. Bob gets you an additional card for staying in play, but at the cost of life. Additionally, because Ragavan can be dashed, it is very easy to capitalize on Ragavan's power before it gets targeted by removal. In order to capitalize on Bob, you have to patiently wait a full turn. By the time that waiting period is over, he’s likely already met his demise.

I have outlined many reasons why Bob is inferior to Ragavan (to no surprise), however, Ragavan has been ripe with ban list speculation and has had a target on its back since it was spoiled. There are not many cards on the Modern chopping block since Yorion, Sky Nomad’s banning, but make no mistake that Ragavan has the Sword of Damocles hanging over its head and it won’t take much for it to fall. While Bob's price continues to trend downward, it might be worth picking up a playset for speculation’s sake. Bob is objectively still a terrific and classic card and its value in-game is readily apparent to even novice players and collectors. Should the time come when Ragavan finds himself on the format's chopping block, Bob will certainly be waiting to resume his place as the format's premier value engine.

Dark Confidant
Double Masters	CardKingdom $18.99	TCGPlayer $21.60
Modern Masters	CardKingdom $19.99	TCGPlayer $20.21
Modern Masters 2015	CardKingdom $20.99	TCGPlayer $19.98

 

Modern has always been a format ripe with financial speculation, but as the format's card pool has continued to grow, so too has the difficulty in tracking its relevant, and potentially relevant, game pieces. This article, I hope, serves as the first of many to explore the Modern format and the hidden financial value within its now vast and ever-expanding card pool.